-John Moraga
Founder, Conservatives Corner
My Experience
In the summer of 2010 I was part of a legal internship at The Jerusalem Institute Of Justice (JIJ), a legal and research institute based in Jerusalem, Israel. In addition to several legal research and analysis projects I was assigned, I was provided an extremely unique insight into the Israeli justice system, when I was invited to join one of the attorneys of the JIJ at the Jerusalem courthouse for trial. My Hebrew is limited, so I could only make out bits and pieces of what was being litigated in the case, but I was able to understand enough (mostly through the infamously animated Israeli/Middle Eastern body language) to know that “we won.” Although most of my internship dealt with issues of immigration and Israel’s Right of Return, my research inevitably made me very privy to the history and intricacies of the Israeli legal system, as well as the overall politics of Israel. Further, my undergraduate education from the University of Judaism (now the American Jewish University) located in Bel Air, CA provided me a solid baseline of Jewish/Israeli history and politics. However, in no way am I claiming to be an expert in Israeli politics (they are far too complex), but I do have a bit more familiarity than your average bloke.
Israel is perhaps one of the most diverse places in the world. To say it is made up of strange bedfellows is an understatement, and to suggest it is an apartheid state is the ignorance of somebody who has never actually been there. Tel Aviv is the homosexual capital of the entire Middle East, yet the vast majority of businesses are closed in Jerusalem on shabbos (the sabbath, which lasts from Friday evening to Saturday evening), an ancient biblical observance. Atheism is too common in Israeli society, yet no other nation more facilitates the zeal of three major religions as well as countless cults. Sudanese refugees and Filipino labor workers cross the same streets as the religiously orthodox Haredim. Arabs and Jews coalesce more than the mainstream media prefers to report. This prevalence for diversity is great for societal cohesion, but a nightmare for politics. Unlike the United States, which governs under the auspices of two major political parties (other parties do have nominal influence) and functions as a democratic republic, Israel is based on a parliamentary republic system and has several political parties (the exact number fluctuates), which wield various levels of political power, dependent on the current political climate. These parties are a reflection of the complex diversity of Israeli society. For over a decade the Likud party, headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has been able to exert the most political influence, but it has been rivaled by other major parties for power such as the Labor party, and most recently the Blue and White party.
How Israeli Elections Work
A gigantic feat to accomplish, I will attempt to simplify the Israeli election process. The Israeli electorate casts votes for a particular party, not for specific candidates. “Seats” are assigned to the political parties in the Knesset (Israel’s legislative body) proportional to the respective percentage of votes each party received during the election. Basically, Israeli citizens vote for the ideas or platforms of political parties, rather than the campaign promises of any individual politician. There are currently 120 seats in the Knesset. So, either one individual party needs to acquire a majority of votes to win 61 seats, or a collection of parties must build a coalition that will total 61 seats or more, in order to govern with a majority of approval. Should a single party fall short of the necessary 61 seats, the sitting President of Israel assigns a party leader the task of negotiating a coalition of parties, in order to form a unity government.
During the past decade, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been able to join his Likud party with others (mostly right-wing or religious) to form a ruling majority coalition. However, in the most recent Israeli election, Likud won the second largest percentage of seats by securing 31 seats, according to the latest calculation of votes, while the left-wing Blue and White party won 33 seats. This requires each party to search for coalition partners, in order to form a governing majority (61 seats or more of the 120 seats in the Knesset). Netanyahu’s significant loss of influence is largely the result of concerted efforts between the left-wing media, anti-Israel activists, and secular politicians who frequently clash with the religious community of Israel.
The Israeli President will soon decide which party leader will have the first shot at building a coalition government (it is up to his discretion, but it will likely be the leader of the Blue and White party). The leader of the Blue and White party, Benny Gantz, has repeatedly stated that he refuses to build a coalition with Likud, so the situation seems to remain a stalemate at best, and a defeat for Netanyahu at worst. However, The Jewish Press is reporting that Netanyahu may be trying to persuade a minor party, which won three seats, to join Likud. That would take Likud to 34 seats, which would give Netanyahu a chance at first bite of the apple to form a coalition government. There is also a growing possibility that there will be another "redo" election, if no party can form a unity government.
Bellwether?
The factors which caused Netanyahu’s potential demise may be similar to a potential defeat for President Trump in 2020. For over a decade, Netanyahu has established a reputation for his political prowess, but he may have exhausted his fortunes in this past election. Likewise, Trump has been impressively politically savvy during his short political career, but enough of his supporters may have wearied of him and deny him a reelection. Also, the Trump-Netanyahu alliance has been very publicized. So, the political left could be smelling blood in the U.S., if Netanyahu is toppled in Israel. Finally, the godless liberal American media will be salivating at the opportunity to do their part in preventing Trump from being reelected. Of course, there are several factors, which may blur the predictability of Israel’s election results on the American 2020 presidential election, and I have laid out some of them i.e. different systems of governance and processes of elections, the number of political parties that wield power, the delusions of U.S. Democrat conspiracy theories, but above all is the embarrassing field of Democrat candidates.
Although I am not a fanatical Trump supporter, or even somebody who rationalizes and defends his every move, I personally believe Trump will easily win a second term in office. That is just my assessment of the current political waters. Obviously, any number of scenarios between now and November 2020 can alter the likely outcome of the U.S. Presidential Election results.